What AI can learn from Bird Flu

The world is now firmly in the era of AI. Not a day goes by without a new announcement and yet another prediction about what the future will bring. It is clearly important to think through what the future might look like, albeit anybody who thinks they know exactly what will happen is either fibbing or is very naive.

It is also important we look to the past to see what we are missing in the future. One thing that immediately springs to mind is bird flu. Prior to Covid there were false dawns about potential bird flu pandemics (albeit there were some incidents.) I remember firms assembling committees and debating this at length but looking back what they focused on was operational dynamics, i.e., how would people get into the office? How would they deliver work? Were there people with particular needs? The list went on.

Thinking back to Covid the huge flaw that was exposed in many organisation’s thinking was being less focussed on the wider economic effects. What some firms had not considered in their bird flu plans was the effect on businesses and the changes in society driven by lockdown. In reality in Covid we witnessed bailout schemes and the need for Government intervention with bounce back loans and rent rebates.

We need to think in the same way about AI and be less internally focussed. We are already seeing statistics showing the drop in hiring from organisations including the big four, management consultancies and even the likes of Microsoft. If less people are working, there will be less money in the economy and less taxation revenue to help the Government with essential services.

Also, without being a doomsayer, in previous industrial revolutions we have seen short term disruption followed by longer term prosperity but do businesses have the financial backbone to withstand this and do Governments of today with increased levels of borrowing have the ability to effect bailouts as they have done in the past? It could be the case that this is the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

And so, what lessons do we have to learn? We cannot make the same mistakes as we did with bird flu. Instead, we need to think much more about macro rather than micro issues. We need to think more about the long-term economic effects of what is happening in the world and prepare for and monitor the same.

It may be that we do not see any negatives of the nature I have flagged, but I certainly would not take this as a given. I for one feel that we need to learn from the lessons of the past and use this to think through the future implications for our businesses.

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Derek Southall